Nagle Notes: The Hot Hand

Hello friends,

Science can typically tell what is "truth" in the world. Gravity pulls stuff down, the Earth goes around the Sun, and DNA is the blueprint for most life. But sometimes we still can not know things for certain, take the "Hot Hand".

In a sport, if someone has a "hot hand" the have made the last few shots and seem to not be able to miss. The thinking is get this player the ball while they are in the zone and use it to your advantage. A study in 1985 called The Hot Hand in Basketball came to the conclusion that the hot hand is not a real thing, and people observe it from the randomness of streaks that occur from a large set of data. But since then, multiple different researchers have found evidence for hot hands in basketball, baseball, and other sports. So maybe it actually exists, and maybe not. Right now analytics shows that there is a slight gain to be had from a player having the hot hand. Science can't always be right all the time, but knowing more helps to make better decisions.

So if you are on a roll for something, maybe there's some actual inertia behind you. Ride the hot hand.

Onwards,
Nagle

PS: Interesting Links
The Expert Comedy Sketch

Speed Skating Championships

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